Aug 2023 -Probability of Win (pWIN)

Probability of win (pWIN) is a mathematical calculation for predicting the likelihood of winning the opportunity you’ve bid, expressed as a percentage or whole number.

There is no industry standard pWIN methodology and every company uses different factors, templates, and formulas for calculating it.

There are two common misunderstandings of pWIN. These misunderstandings give Capture Managers the wrong impression that calculating pWIN isn’t necessary or “a waste of time”.

pWIN calculations are accurate. It is impossible to forecast pWIN with 100% accuracy. The calculation is meant to be directionally correct and an indicator for the strength of the pursuit. Based on the calculations, Capture Managers should take action to improve or protect their position.

pWIN calculations can only improve. Many Capture Managers do a single calculation at the beginning of their pursuit and increase it slightly at each milestone briefing. Although this gives the impression that the pursuit is getting stronger over time, this may not be true. pWIN calculations are dynamic and go down as well as up. Several things can force a pWIN down, like solicitation modification or addition of a new competitor. Intelligence should be collected constantly during a pursuit and the pWIN calculated frequently.